
Gold knows all. It might come as a shock to many, but our learnings from our time investing in the analogue world translates well to the digital world. Rising gold prices unlock US dollar liquidity at global central banks, and this liquidity is set to drive an unprecedented rise in digital asset prices.
Gold is the original Bitcoin. It is stable, durable, fungible, divisible and a hedge against monetary and fiscal irresponsibility. Gold derivative markets are many multiples larger than the underlying, meaning that every dollar increase has a substantial ripple effect on available liquidity.
Chart 1 plots golds price in yellow (set forward by 12-months) against the combined market capitalization of digital assets (excluding BTC, ETH, and a few stable coins). It is a striking correlation isn’t it? Gold prices almost perfectly predict digital asset markets 12-months in advance.
If gold is indeed the leading indicator, we are going to about to see a profoundly different digital asset market at this time next year. Are you prepared for Web3 to be a $4-trillion-dollar asset class? Wealth managers, superfunds and financial advisors need to debate this question.
Chart 1 – Gold (fwd 12-months) versus digital asset market caps ex-(BTC, ETH, stables) (2019-2024)
Source: Vikara Capital, TradingView.com
As discussed in our macro section below, we do not see a recession. We see a myriad of idiosyncratic factors that are convoluting economic data. Election uncertainty passes. Inventories can’t be destocked forever. A world war is not the preferred path for anyone. Things can get better quickly.
Inflation is behind us, monetary policy is becoming a tailwind, and the largest risk to global growth is not a western market for once. The supply chain hangover from Covid has abated and the fiscal setup across Western government is to outspend each other reshoring industry.
It is a unique and wonderfully positive setup. The risks are short term in nature, and the market is fixated on them. The tailwinds are structural and unlikely to change regardless of which leaders are in place. It feels asymmetric to us even though this is fairly counter consensus right now.
As we have said for most of the year, the time to be investing in digital asset is now. The space has only a few sophisticated competitors, the tokens have valuations that may never exist again, and we have been able to build a portfolio that we believe strongly that will perform well into the future.
While markets spent most of September flip flopping between a 25bps or 50bps cut, the Federal Reserve took the top end despite a split consensus. Taking a step back, the quantum is less important than the direction of travel, and the shift in global central bank policies is all that matters (Chart 2).
Chart 2 – World Proportion of Central Banks Cutting Rates (1995-2025)
Source: @MacroMicroMe, MAcvroBond
Looser policy is driving a global liquidity rebound, which is now growing at an annualized rate of >6%, its fastest annual pace since April 2022 (Chart 3). The last time this chart printed a reading this high with an upwards trajectory was April 2020. Remember the good old days?
Chart 3 – Global Monetary Liquidity (2010-2027)
Source: @TomasOnMarkets
The risk in the short term is if we have a hard landing or not. We continue to believe 2025 is a better year than 2024. While it is one data point, bankruptcy filings aren’t screaming recession (Chart 4).
Chart 4 – Weekly Bancruptcy Filings (2006-2024)
Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist, @MikeZaccardi
The market pricing in over 200bps of cuts at the start of this loosening cycle is already facilitating an economic rebound. This amount of easing is enormous compared to previous cycles (Chart 5).
Chart 5 – Fed Rate Cuts Pricing at the Begining of Easing, Bp (1990-2024)
Source: Adam Kurpiel, SocGen via John Authers, Bloomberg
Forward rate expectations also show a similarly dire outcome, with the 1-year versus 3-month rates pricing in 100bps of cuts in the next year, a differential that has never been this wide (Chart 7).
Chart 7 – 1-Year vs 3-Month US Treasury Yield Curve (1962-2022)
Source: Bloomberg L.P., Tradingview, @GameofTrades
The above two charts give pause for concern, and while we believe the Fed is offsides, it has a lot of room to move. Looking at CPI and core CPI, updated for real time shelter metrics, the Fed can lower rates 200bps and still be above inflation (Chart 8).
Chart 8 – Headline Inflation Adjusted For Alternative Shelter Metrics (2018-2024)
Source: WisdomTree, @JeremyDSchwartz
This cycle is very different from 2008 and 1989. Covid was a supply side shock, with supply chains normalizing. We are close to the end of the inventory destocking, the US election is nearly over, and geopolitical tensions are precarious but stable. Today’s uncertainty is an opportunity (Chart 9).
Chart 9 – Market Now Sees Odds of Recession by June as 50/50 (Jul-Sep 2024)
Source: Simon White – Bloomberg via Macrobond
Our optimism comes from several areas. Firstly, US labour market weakness is clouded by immigration. As an example, the Sahm Rule, which when triggered has historically led to a recession, does not signal a recession when looking at prime age nonemployment rates (Chart 10).
Chart 10 – Sahm rule recession indicator (1960-2020)
Source: Oxford Economics, Haver Analytics, TheDailyShot
Lastly, the results of a question from the September Conference Board consumer confidence survey says it all:
Q: Are you planning a foreign vacation in the next six months?
A: One fifth of Americans plan on having a foreign vacation by next spring (Chart 13).
Given a foreign vacation is the ultimate discretionary spending item, seeing this at historically high levels just does not align with a consumer that is bunkering down ahead of a recession.
Chart 13 – Conference Board Survey Question On Plans To Take a Foreign Vacation (2010-2025)
Source: Conference Board, Bloomberg, @biancoresearch
The biggest risk to our outlook is China, which we have been warning about for months. It is in freefall and it may get worse before getting better. China is deflating, which hasn’t happened since the late-90s (Chart 14) when it was 3% of global GDP. Today it is 20% of global GDP.
Chart 14 – China GDP deflator (1998-2024)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics, Bloomberg, @SpencerHakimian
Declining M1 is a risk to the system, but what can you expect when capital controls give Chinese people two options, hold money in the banks and risk losing it, or take it out. The SHFE gold trading activity says it all, the Chinese people are very worried about the system (Chart 20).
Chart 20 – SHFE Gold Trading Volumes (million) (2015-2024)
Source: Bloomberg, @minenergybiz
It is no wonder that the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) is panicking, announcing a raft of measures to try and stem the bleed as its 10-year rate falls to an all-time low (Chart 21).
*CHINA TO CUT BANKS’ RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO *CHINA TO CUT OUTSTANDING MORTGAGE RATES: PBOC PAN *PBOC TO CUT 7-DAY REVERSE REPO RATE TO 1.5% FROM 1.7%
Chart 21 – China 10-Year Yield (2006-2024)
Source: Bloomberg, @biancoresearch
We do not believe the announced stimulus measures will be enough. This is a GFC style moment for China on a much larger scale. For first time ever, China’s ultra long-end government bond yields are below Japan’s. China can only hope it doesn’t take decades to come out of deflation (Chart 22).
Chart 22 – Ultra Long-end Government Bond Yields: China and Japan (2012-2024)
Source: Macrobond, @ShanghaiMacro
Given the backdrop above, it is unsurprising to see Bitcoin (+43%) and Gold (+25%) as the top performing assets in 2024. Chinese buyers are scrambling to get capital out of a deflating economy, while US/EU investors are sharpening their knives for the incoming liquidity cycle.
This is the first time these assets have been in the top two spots for any calendar year (Figure 1).
Figure 1 – Asset Class Total Returns (2011-2024)
Source: Creative Planning, @CharlieBilello
At the risk of oversimplifying things, see below for the last 20 times that the Fed cut rates when the S&P500 was within 2% of an ATH (based on the day before the cut). It was higher every single time on year later with the average increase of 13.9% (Figure 2).
Figure 2 – S&P 500 Returns after Fed Cuts within 2% of All-Time Highs (1980-2020)
Source: Carson Investment Research, Factset, @RyanDetrick
It is a very encouraging time to be allocating capital into digital assets, with the combination of monetary and fiscal easing, a completion of inventory destocking, the end of election uncertainty, and subdued inflation creating a once in a lifetime opportunity to buy emerging digital infrastructure.
September was a busier than normal month for digital assets. We attended the crypto industry’s signature conference, Token2049 in Singapore. While we arrived with modest expectations, we left feeling like the industry has made significant progress towards becoming both more professional (many less crypto bros than we’ve seen at previous conferences), while also bringing in a diverse group of highly talented entrepreneurs that are here for more than just token price gains.
It was also the month of the Fed pivot and China stimulus, which led to very strong performance for the fund, outperforming Web3 bellwether ETH by more than 25%. As we’ve been preaching, the set-up from a macro, industry and regulatory perspective is the best it’s been in a long time as liquidity returns to a space that is highly correlated to increasing risk appetite and global flows. September’s returns validate that view.
September was also a busy month for industry PR, of which we’ve included highlights below.
While we are building Vikara for the long-term, it’s hard to ignore the crypto cycles that have played out over the 14 years since BTC’s launch. As we have noted over many months, liquidity tends to find its way to crypto (Chart 23). Liquidity is ramping up. If historical relationships remain intact, then crypto prices follow.
Chart 23 – Bitcoin price vs Global M2 (10-week lead)
Source: Global Macro Investor; LSEG Datastream; Bloomberg
We’ve also highlighted US presidential election cycles and crypto performance. Q4 of election years (and BTC halving years) and the following full-year have been the strongest performing periods for digital assets (Chart 24).
Chart 24 – BTC Halving and US Presidential Elections and crypto performance
Source: x.com @MaxBecauseBTC; Trading View @max7882; as at Sept 10, 2024
Beyond Tradingview’s “Total3” or “Others” indexes, the latter which measures overall performance of all crypto tokens ex-top 10 by market capitalization, the ETH:BTC ratio helps gauge relative performance of Ethereum versus Bitcoin and in turn signals whether alt coins, as represented by ETH, are outperforming BTC. This shift, where ETH starts to outperform, has happened in the back half of the two previous four-year cycles ahead of large gains and looks to have bottomed mid-September (Chart 25).
Chart 25 – ETH:BTC performance
Source: x.com @MaxBecauseBTC; Trading View @max7882; as at Sept 13, 2024
If history repeats itself, and it looks like it is, ETH is set to outperform BTC, with alt coins outperforming both. Reminder, Vikara is a non-BTC and ETH fund.
With the US elections only one month away, we wrote a dedicated research piece on how US presidential candidates and their respective political parties have and may affect the crypto industry. The full report can be found here.
As we summarize in the above-referenced paper, Operation Chokepoint 2.0 continues to affect the industry. This month the Federal Reserve issued a cease-and-desist order to crypto-friendly United Texas Bank, citing “significant deficiencies” in the bank’s risk management systems and dealings with crypto clients. This follows similar actions last month against Customers Bank, the largest crypto-friendly bank in the US citing “significant deficiencies related to the Bank’s risk management practices and compliance with the applicable laws, rules, and regulations relating to anti-money laundering.” Customers Bank must also now give the Fed 30 days’ advance notice prior to entering any new banking relationship with a crypto company (Figure 3). This led to widespread debanking of crypto clients by Customers Bank, including Vikara. Luckily, we have multiple other banking partners, but it no doubt left some crypto companies scrambling to find a new banking partner.
Figure 3 – Gemini’s Tyler Winklevoss and Operation Chokepoint 2.0
Source: x.com
Whether politically motivated or not, the Fed’s actions have effectively closed or severely limited on and off ramps in the US. Dan Spuller, Head of Industry Affairs for the digital asset industry’s largest advocacy group, the Blockchain Association, noted Operation Chokepoint 2.0 continues (Figure 4). The Blockchain Association also responded saying that the Fed’s action is a “coordinated attempt to choke off the digital asset industry’s access to the traditional banking system.”
Figure 4 – Blockchain Association noting Operation Chokepoint 2.0 continues
Source: x.com
SEC Chair Gary Gensler was again in front of Congress this month. In a September 18 hearing of the House Subcommittee on Digital Assets, Financial Technology and Inclusion, titled At the Dazed and Confused: Breaking Down the SEC’s Politicized Approach to Digital Assets, Arkansas Representative French Hill (R-AR) claimed that Chair Gensler’s approach to digital assets had led to “confusion and uncertainty” in the markets.
Figure 5 – Sen Warren, Chair Gensler, Sen Brown and Rep Waters leading the anti-crypto charge
Source: x.com
In prepared remarks, Rep. Hill stated:
“Despite this legislative progress on a bipartisan basis, we’ve been troubled by the fact that the SEC as chaired by Chairman Gensler has instead chosen to front-end the work of Congress and insert politics instead of being an independent regulator. He even took the unusual step of releasing his own statement opposing FIT21 on the morning of the House vote, despite refusing to provide technical assistance as requested by the Committee—and I might add, in contrast to the Biden White House, which did not issue a veto statement on that bill. With over 70 Democrats voting ‘Yes’ on the bill just hours later, it’s clear that Chairman Gensler is stuck on an island of his own making.”
He was also grilled by Congressman Tom Emmer (R-MN) over the SEC’s handling of the DEBT Box case, where in July 2023, the SEC obtained a freezing order on DEBT Box, and simultaneously sued the business, claiming that it was operating an illegal US$50 million crypto scheme. Lead SEC lawyers Michael Welsh and Joseph Watkins resigned in April 2024 after a federal judge sanctioned them for committing a “gross abuse of power” in seeking to freeze the assets of the company. Ultimately, the SEC shut down the office that was responsible for the case, while being ordered by a federal judge who dismissed the SEC’s case to pay $1.8 million in DEBT Box’s legal fees.
Crypto is becoming a bipartisan issue as the sector gains more influence, especially with the large amounts of money being raised by PACs. And while Trump may be optically better for the industry (he’s also doing all he can to court as many crypto bro votes as possible, like buying a hamburger with Bitcoin (Figure 6)), we believe the pendulum has swung in favor of the crypto industry such that the hostile approach by regulators and some politicians is largely over.
Figure 7 – Donald Trump buys a hamburger with Bitcoin at a NYC pub
Source: x.com
The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) released a report this month titled A Look Behind the Screens: Examining the Data Practices of Social Media and Video Streaming Services. The FTC’s conclusion was scathing:
“The amount of data collected by large tech companies is simply staggering. They track what we read, what websites we visit, whether we are married and have children, our educational level and income bracket, our location, our purchasing habits, our personal interests, and in some cases even our health conditions and religious faith. They track what we do on and off their platforms, often combining their own information with enormous data sets purchased through the largely unregulated consumer data market.”
The report prompted us to revisit SocialFi, or decentralized social media, promising users’ greater control over their data, privacy and monetization opportunities.
SocialFi, short for Social Finance, is a Web3 approach to social media, combining social networks and DeFi. The key tenet is to provide network users with control over their own content (ie freedom of speech) and data given no centralization body owns and runs the underlying network. Further, SocialFi aims to provide earning opportunities from creators’ engagement and following, hence the DeFi aspect.
While SocialFi seems like a natural fit for crypto and Web3, it has yet to catch on en masse. This is no surprise given the first mover and network effects of X, Facebook, Instagram, etc. Once you are there and you’ve got your “contacts/friends” or social network, it’s a big ask to jump ship and start over again, unless there is a compelling reason to do so. And while there have been a few platforms that gained traction, at least for a period of time, namely Friend.tech, none have shown the ability to compete with the Web2 incumbents.
Below we highlight a handful of SocialFi companies, with many more being incubated privately given large amounts of VC funding that has been invested in the space.
Decentralized Social or DeSo (DESO)
DeSo is the first purpose-built layer-1 blockchain created to decentralize social media and scale storage-heavy apps for mass adoption. Creators’ content is stored directly on the DeSo blockchain with infinite-state applications generating new data (users’ messages, likes and follows, social tipping, etc) with every transaction that must be stored and indexed. Founded in January 2019, it is backed by Sequoia, Social Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and Coinbase.
DeSo also has their own SocialFi apps such as Diamond, which is the equivalent of a Web3 X where creators and communities can engage and earn.
Recently, Focus, a new social network that combines crypto speculation and social media (which seems like a spin on Friend.tech) announced they were building on DeSo. Focus plans to have a look and feel of X but with anonymous crypto-enabled monetization mechanics that include paid reposts (aka decentralized ads), paid messages, paid unlockable content, subscriptions, and a feature called Creator Coins that lets one invest directly in other creators’ revenue streams.
Farcaster (Private)
Farcaster is a social media protocol dubbed the (Twitter (now X) alternative) built on L2 Optimism. Devs can build integrated apps that perform various social media functions. One such app is Warpcast, a Twitter-like platform for writing posts (called “casts”), following other users, and liking or sharing (“recasting”) those users’ posts.
The platform uses a paid model to avoid bots, a major problem on platforms like X. Users have to pay a $5 sign-up fee, which is meant to dissuade users from creating spam accounts. The fee also restricts the number of casts (think tweets) that a user can share attached to paid-for storage units. By paying the sign-up fee, which is valid for up to a year, a user will be limited to 5,000 casts, 2,500 post attachments, and 2,500 reactions in a year.
The protocol was founded in 2020 by Dan Romero and Varun Srinivasan, former Coinbase employees. They recently raised $150 million, led by Paradigm, with participation from a16z crypto, Haun, and USV, amongst others at a valuation of $1 billion, it’s the largest investment in SocialFi media to date. Investors claim that Farcaster could be the SocialFi base layer that developers utilize to build new social media applications if and when SocialFi takes off.
Nostr (Use BTC as networks currency)
Nostr is a decentralized communication protocol that stands for “notes and other stuff transmitted by relays.” Nostr relies on a network of users, is open-source, and gains value from its censorship-resistant nature to address issues like spam, proprietary algorithms, and censorship. While it does not have its own token, Bitcoin acts as the network’s native currency.
Apps built on Nostr include:
While Nostr seems to have some traction, it is mostly amongst the Bitcoin maxis and “geeky” community, as they have said themselves.
Geojam (JAM)
Geojam is a social network that “upgrades” the interaction between fans and artists whereby they provide additional earning opportunities for creators (musicians, artists, etc.) while providing users unique experience for influencers, artists, and fans.
Users earn the JAM token by interacting with creators and engaging with the app. They can then redeem the tokens for exclusive artist merchandise, events, or as their marketing materials claim, interactions with the artists.
The project has been funded by high profile musicians Mariah Carey, Tyga and Machine Gun Kelly, for example. And while receiving a relatively large amount of media coverage and hype, it has largely failed to perform, with its user base small and its token price down >99% from it’s March 2022 launch price.
Halo Social (Private)
Start-up Halo Social allows users to track their DeFi portfolios, manage digital assets, and engage in a “Social to Earn” model. The model incentivizes users to participate in the platform by rewarding them for their social interactions and data contributions. The platform also utilizes AI to analyze and monetize social data, providing users with a share of the revenue generated from their data. This approach empowers users to take control of their digital footprint while creating a potential income stream through their social activities.
Friend.tech (FRIEND)
Last but not least is Friend.tech. Friend.tech is a decentralized social network where users can buy and sell “keys” that are linked to Twitter (now X) accounts. These keys offer access to private in-app chatrooms and exclusive content from that X user akin to ones found on platforms like Telegram. They can later choose to sell those keys if they decide to leave the chat. The platform markets itself as “the marketplace for your friends.”
Launched in August 2023, it got off to a raging start with top influencers earning significant sums of money from their content in its first two weeks post launch (Chart 26).
Chart 26 – Top 25 Friend.tech accounts by royalty earnings (12 days post launch)
Source: CoinGecko; Dune Analytics; as at August 23, 2023
While Friend.tech targeted and was successful at getting crypto natives on the platform initially, they were unable to get mass adoption. But, over time, they also failed to keep their core audience of early adopters engaged and happy. This led to a continuous drop in Total Value Locked (TVL). TVL peaked in October 2023 at $52 million, stood at $36 million at the beginning of 2024, but was just $3.4 million in August 2024. This coincided with their token price collapsing in May and with the project effectively called dead in August, one year after launch, with many accusing the projects founders of “rugging” the project following its lack of adoption.
In the first two weeks after its launch, the platform reportedly gained more than 100,000 users and made about $25 million with users like cobie making nearly $150k in royalty revenue. But the above outlines how hard it is to keep the momentum and crack the SocialFi code.
Our conclusion. It’s still very early and the investable opportunities remain small. Will one of these platforms crack the code? Eventually. But with X having between 245 to nearly 600 million daily active users, for example, it’s going to be an uphill battle for the Web3 hopefuls for the foreseeable future.
Luke McFarlane
Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager
Vikara Capital
Mark Riccio, CFA
Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager
Vikara Capital
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Vikara is a liquid, open-ended fund investing in digital assets (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) with no lockups (add or redeem monthly). Vikara’s proprietary investment and rigorous risk management processes aim to outperform the broader digital asset markets. Founders have over 40 years combined investment experience at Millennium, Balyasny, Platinum, Merrill Lynch and Macquarie.
Vikara, in Sanskrit, describes the process of change. Its definition is constantly evolving, changing with economic cycles, technology, and geopolitics. It is a transformation of thought or logic, a modification in the direction of travel, an alteration in action or participation. It is one thing to want change, but another to drive it. We believe in a world where commerce doesn’t need intermediaries. Where people are paid directly for content, time, and effort. Where privacy, data and free speech is given, not something to opt-in for.
This material is for the general information only and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security or asset in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. We are not soliciting any specific action based on this material. It does not constitute a recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial conditions, or needs of individual clients. Before acting on this material, you should consider whether it is suitable for your particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. The price and value of the investments referred to in this material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. We do not provide tax, accounting, or legal advice to our clients, and all investors are advised to consult with their tax, accounting, or legal advisers regarding any potential investment. The material is based on information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate, complete and/or up to date, and it should not be relied on as such. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this material only and only represent the views of the author and not those of Vikara, unless otherwise expressly noted.
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