
August was volatile to say the least. The VIX roundtripped from 16 to 65 and back again, the DXY collapsed 3% to levels not seen since mid-2023, gold rallied to ATH’s above 2,500/oz, the S&P500 rose 2%, and for a moment people were convinced the BOJ destroyed markets with a 20bp rate hike. All of this was wrapped in a bow of escalating tensions in the middle east.
Digital assets were not spared from the volatility, and the range bound chop sideways has had a material negative impact on sentiment. While it is tempting to hold on to the continued call for the incoming banana zone, the average retail punter is fatigued and tuning out.
We like the setup from here. Markets never behave how consensus believes they should. The chorus all year has been ETF -> BTC halving -> Fed cuts -> ATH. Most of those waiting for the rally are bruised, broken, and despondent. Nearly all our sentiment indicators are at the lows.
Whether it is social media engagement, fear and greed indicators, or the alt coin speculation index, all are showing that people are checked out (Chart 1). Volumes and liquidity across the space are declining while stable coin holdings rise.
The crypto market is finally in a place where consensus isn’t up, positioning is neutral to negative, interest levels are minimal, and liquidity is low. The average investor has returned to equity markets to chase Nvidia and is comforting themselves with that thought that equity market returns are good enough.
It is hard to argue with this logic. The ETFs have entrapped tens of billions of dollars of demand that will now not enter digital asset markets but sit in centralized products at the largest financial institutions. These ETFs give the average person exposure without needing to learn anything about the space.
This is the beauty of what Vikara is investing in. We own a portfolio of tokens that we believe are software solutions that will become critical infrastructure of the future digital economy. During these periods of sideways chop, we are comforted that these teams continue to build and grow as evidenced by user growth.
While we generally try to refrain from discussing specific tokens in our write-ups as we are not in the business of pumping our book, we are encouraged by advancements this month of partnerships with major US universities, granted patents for off-chain cloud compute innovation, and soaring real world asset growth.
Digital assets, and their applications are evolving rapidly, despite many of these advancements being lost in the volatility and memecoin craziness. In volatile times, we remain focused on the fundamental value drivers of these ecosystems to ensure we are well placed when prices turn.
US inflation is back in an acceptable range for looser monetary policy, and its downward bias due to delayed rental data is a tailwind for the Federal Reserve. Core CPI shows that disinflation is now ingrained in the US (Chart 3).
Chart 3 – Core inflation (YoY%) (2015-2024)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Depending on what items you put in core CPI (sticky versus flexible), the US is experiencing deflation in some categories (Chart 4). This may drive the Federal Reserve to act faster as the only thing worse than inflation in an over levered economy is deflation.
Chart 4 – Atlanta Fed flexible price core CPI (YoY%) (2008-2024)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
The same people that are telling us that the US is in good shape are also the ones missing their forecasts by multiple standard deviations. This is why the rapid increase in unemployment is concerning for policy makers (Chart 7).
Chart 7 – United States Unemployment Rate (2024)
Source: Amanda from CML Pro
It is not surprising that the market moved to price in at least three cuts for the year, and it is now consensus that the Fed needs to act quickly to stave off a much more serious recession (Chart 9).
Chart 9 – Implied Probabilities for Policy in 2024 (2023-2024)
Source: Convera, Macrobond, @MacroKova
Interest rate futures are pricing in eight Fed rate cuts over the next 12-months, the most since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC) (Chart 10). Over the last 60 years, every time the market expected 200 basis points of rate cuts, a recession in the US followed within several months.
Chart 10 – 12-month forward market-implied change in Fed funds rate (1963-2023)
Source: Golman Sachs, @KobeissiLetter
As we have said before, we aren’t buying an imminent recession. The slowdown is more a function of the election year as inventory and capex decisions are being deferred. During a recession, the US LEI doesn’t increase for months in a row like it is now (Chart 12).
Chart 12 – US LEI 6-month growth rate (% annualized) (2000-2024)
Source: The Conference Board, @MikeZaccardi
An unrelenting issuance of treasury bonds (Chart 14), which are expected to hit $1.9 trillion in 2024 and surpass levels seen even during the 2008 GFC, make it also hard to believe that growth can fall off a cliff imminently.
Chart 14 – US treasury bond issuance (2000-2024)
Source: Tradingview, Game of Trades, @GameofTrades_
China is much more concerning given its collapse in M1 and what that means for its future GDP (Chart 15). Grim is an understatement. Chinese analysts believe deposits are flowing out of banks into other management products, but it is more likely another symptom of a liquidity issue.
Chart 15 – Chinese M1 (YoY) versus GDP (YoY) (2000-2025)
Source: Bloomberg, GlobalData TS Lombard, @WinfieldSmart
Foreign direct investment (Chart 17) has gone from bad to worse, and it is unlikely to change given the continued adversarial stance of the west toward China right now.
Chart 17 – Chinese foreign direct investment flow (1998-2024)
Source: Steno Research, Bloomberg and Macrobond, AndreasStenoLarsen from Stenos Signals
Demographics are also working heavily against China, with its prime consumption age population in decline not a great driver of the consumer economy (Chart 19).
Chart 19 – Projected Change in Chinese Population Aged 25 to 54 by Year (2018-2036)
Source: United Nations-Created with Datawrapper, @AvidCommentator
To put the drawdown in Chinese housing in context, new starts are as bad as any of the major global property collapses (Chart 20). The big difference is the sheer size of the Chinese real estate market, which one of the largest asset classes in the world.
Chart 20 – Housing new starts (1996-2023)
Source: NBS, WIND, Macquarie Macro Strategy
To sum it up, China’s economy is bad and getting worse, the US economy is slowing but still fumbling along, and Europe is somewhere in the middle. What is clear is that central banks are offsides and are accelerating easing (Chart 21).
Chart 21 – World Central Bank Liquidity (2020-2024)
Source: CrossBorder Capital, People’s Bank of China, @joemccann
As the macro headwinds turn into favourable tailwinds, the altcoin speculation index remains in the doldrums. Sentiment is terrible and at these levels has historically been a great buying opportunity. While we are naturally talking our own book, we believe it is a great time to get involved.
While altcoins are in a clear six-month downtrend, how have individual sectors performed? According to Artemis, the gaming sector is down nearly 81% YTD!!!, while Real World Assets (RWA) are up over 210%, granted the RWA component includes only four tokens – Ondo (ONDO), Mantra (OM), Maple (MPL) and Clearpool (CPOOL) (Chart 23 and Figure 2).
Chart 23 – Digital Asset Token Performance by Sector (YTD 2024)
Source: Artemis.xyz
Note Mantra skews RWA higher given it is up nearly 1,600% YTD after it rebranded to an RWA focused blockchain. The bottom of the barrel provides a happy hunting ground, especially in places like gaming given the crossover between ecosystem user interests plus the merits of interoperability and asset ownership with blockchain technology. And the fact that there are over 3 billion gamers globally.
While the market largely recovered from beginning of month levels after the Fed’s formal acknowledgement that rates will be heading lower, an end of month sell-off dampened excitement with sentiment returning to the dumpster.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen back below 30, which historically has provided a great buying opportunity (when it gets above 80, watch out).
Figure 3 – Crypto Fear and Greed Index
Source: Coinglass
In terms of social engagements, late August 2024 saw total viewership of crypto focused YouTube channels return to September 2023 bottom of cycle levels, indicating that many retail participants have checked out following 5 months of a drifting lower altcoin market.
Chart 24 – Crypto YouTube Channel Engagement since Oct 2018 (BTC price (RHS) vs # views (LHS))
Source: Intothecryptoverse; as of August 26, 2024.
Some of this liquidity appears to be making its way into the crypto markets as stablecoins.
Looking back to the last cycle, the stablecoin market cap rose from $60bn to $137bn from April 1, 2021 (the first data point available from DefiLlama) to November 9, 2021, the peak in alt coins, or 130%, as new money poured into the market. The market cap peaked in February 2022, falling for 18 months, then slowly grinding higher until the recent peak in March/April and has been flat for nearly six months. That changed over the past two weeks with the market cap reaching the same level in February 2022, potentially driven by fiat moving into stables in preparation for a potential upmarket in coming months.
Chart 28 – Stablecoin Total Market Cap (April 1, 2021 – August 27, 2024)
Source: DefiLlama; excludes algorithmic stablecoins
In summary, token prices are down, many by a lot!!! (buy when things are cheap), sentiment stinks (buy when market is fearful) and liquidity is increasing (crypto loves liquidity).
Add in the additional tailwinds like regulatory and political clarity, crypto user growth, tradfi adoption, all that we continue to highlight, and we believe more than ever that it is an excellent time to allocate to altcoins.
It was a relatively quiet month with news we found of interest below.
Importantly, the resolution of three cases of last cycle corporate malfeasance continued to progress this past month.
These events reminded us of the below meme from 2022.
Figure 4 – Crypto bad actors working to burn it all down
Source: x.com
Looking back and one could have envisioned a scenario where the crypto sector did not recover from the damage done by bad actors. Yet here we are two plus years later with each case largely resolved and not one dollar of taxpayer money spent to bail out any of the failed businesses.
At the same time, the actors from the early days of crypto have been largely relegated to the ash heap of history. Take Su Zhu and Kyle Davies, the co-founders of the failed Three Arrows Capital (3AC). They launched a new venture called OPNX, a crypto exchange and claims trading platform, in mid-2023. Less than a year later it officially shut down. Market forces sorting it all out.
Moving onto crypto adoption. One of primary issues in cryptocurrency is ease of use and in turn consumers willingness to participate in the sector. This is driven by varying levels of complexity across different blockchain ecosystems coupled with a lack of mass market products.
Regarding the former, say you want to buy a token on the Solana Network that is not listed on a centralized exchange (most SOL tokens are traded only on decentralized exchanges). Listed below are the traditional steps to buying a Solana network token.
We highlight the above given many newer entrants to crypto may find the steps listed above to buy, sell and realize potential profits all too much, especially once you layer in seed phrases, wallet addresses, and potential issues with little to no customer service should something go sideways. And of course, the fear that the tokens will disappear into the Nethersphere.
Times are changing though. Solana recently announced that they have integrated Meld, a fintech infrastructure platform that enables users to onramp, offramp, and transfer between fiat and crypto and across over 150 countries, numerous currencies and multiple payment methods.
Solana users can now acquire tokens directly in their self-custodial wallet. Users can choose from eight fiat-to-crypto onramp providers – Meso, Coinbase Pay, Robinhood Connect, Stripe, Unlimit, Topper, Transak, and Blockchain.com while paying from Apple Pay, Google Pay, debit and credit card, or bank transfer.
All the above can be done in less than 10 minutes in a mobile phone app with no need for a centralized exchange account or desktop computer (assuming one already has a wallet set-up).
Ton network self-custodial wallets TonKeeper and MyTonWallet announced late last year a similar arrangement as described above with Changelly, an instant cryptocurrency exchange that facilitates fiat-to-crypto swaps.
This simplification of the onboarding process is one step towards making the entire cryptocurrency experience easier for non-native users. Add in the new technology that eliminates seed phrases (Figure 4), and the barriers to entry for new users will drop significantly.
Figure 5 – Coinbase Smart Wallet
Source: x.com
Before we move to the tokens section, we once again wanted to touch on memecoins as we’ve done in recent investor monthlies and regularly on LinkedIn. Partially to help understand why they are garnering some of the most mindshare in crypto, but also because they are becoming embedded in society outside of the cryptoverse.
As many of you are likely aware, the founder of Telegram and the Ton Network (TON) Pavel Durov was arrested in France on August 25. Following his arrest, the memecoin Resistance Dog (REDO) surged nearly 400% following Ton’s developers changed the Ton logo to the memecoin’s avatar, a white cartoon dog with a hood. Ton community members urged others to buy the token in response to his jailing to align with what they call the “DigitalResistance”.
Chart 29 – REDO token becomes symbol of Pavel Durov’s “DigitalResistance”
Source: Dextools.io
Once again, this demonstrates that fact anonymous community members across the world are using a memecoin to come together around a specific movement, interest and/or cultural icon. Why we continue to believe that memecoins are not a fad, or at least 0.01% are here to stay.
This month we cover Base, Coinbase’s Layer 2 (L2) Network.
Base is an Ethereum L2 blockchain built on Optimism’s OP Stack. OP Stack allows for an open-source modular approach for building blockchains, enabling proprietary elements to be built separately and combined to create customized solutions.
The goal of Base is to combine the underlying security of Ethereum, along with Coinbase’s best practices, to enable customer to confidently onramp into the Base ecosystem. Developers can leverage Coinbase’s products, users, and tools along with product integrations and fiat onramps as part of the broader Coinbase ecosystem. Or in simpler terms, allow developers access to Coinbase’s captive audience, assuming Coinbase directly supports projects built on the L2.
L2 networks operate on top of an underlying blockchain protocol such as Ethereum and thus process transactions off the Ethereum Layer 1 mainnet. This results in a number of benefits to both developers and customers including improved scalability and efficiency, increased transaction speeds and reduced gas fees.
Base has experienced significant growth. Daily active addresses hit an all-time high of 1.1 million in late August (Chart 30) with more than 4.3 million daily transactions (Chart 31).
Chart 30 – Base Chain Daily Active Addresses (LTM)
Source: Artemis.xyz
When compared to other chains, there are a limited number of larger, high-profile projects that have listed tokens on the network. This is driven by fact it’s only one year old as mainnet launched on August 9, 2024 coupled with a limited number of ICOs/IDOs over the past year given market conditions. Higher profile tokens on the chain are memecoins Brett (BRETT), Toshi (Toshi) and Basenji (BENJI); defi protocol Aerodrome Finance (AERO); and gaming platform Metacade (MCADE).
While the number of tokens listed on Base remains very small relative to say Ethereum or Solana, projects are starting to migrate to or build on Base, some beyond their native chains.
Take Centrifuge, a decentralized asset financing protocol built on Polka Dot. It recently launched on Base using the Morpho Protocol. Morpho Vaults will include collateral from multiple tokenization platforms:
This is the first RWA platform on Base and the first permissioned lending market integrated with Coinbase Verifications. Coinbase recently launched Verifications which allows a Coinbase customer to self-attest they’ve been KYC’d by Coinbase following the Ethereum Attestation Standard. This integration allows the protocol/application to offer solutions to only wallets that have attested, streamlining their onboarding process seamlessly through a single click.
First institutional use case of Coinbase Verifications that streamlines onboarding and improves user experience
While CFG was initially built on Polka Dot, the integration into Base should benefit CFG tokens holders assuming a successful launch. We except that more protocols will make the same move.
Given the above, how does one invest in Base?
Given there is no native Base token, the only way to gain exposure to the ecosystem growth and the potential to ride the tailwinds of Coinbase’s onboarding of the masses is to own tokens that are building on the chain. Admittedly the pickings are slim today, but given growth in the ecosystem (TVL, wallets, stablecoins, etc) coupled with power of the Coinbase ecosystem, including potential incubation by Coinbase and benefits from their recently launched Smart Wallet, we imagine the opportunity set will grow in coming years.
Luke McFarlane
Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager
Vikara Capital
Mark Riccio, CFA
Co-Founder & Portfolio Manager
Vikara Capital
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Vikara is a liquid, open-ended fund investing in digital assets (excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum) with no lockups (add or redeem monthly). Vikara’s proprietary investment and rigorous risk management processes aim to outperform the broader digital asset markets. Founders have over 40 years combined investment experience at Millennium, Balyasny, Platinum, Merrill Lynch and Macquarie.
Vikara, in Sanskrit, describes the process of change. Its definition is constantly evolving, changing with economic cycles, technology, and geopolitics. It is a transformation of thought or logic, a modification in the direction of travel, an alteration in action or participation. It is one thing to want change, but another to drive it. We believe in a world where commerce doesn’t need intermediaries. Where people are paid directly for content, time, and effort. Where privacy, data and free speech is given, not something to opt-in for.
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